Vietnam’s GDP is expected to gain very strong growth this year, driven by a soaring infrastructure spending, resilient exports and a modest consumption recovery.

Vietnam forecast to achieve investment-grade credit rating sooner than planned

HANOI (VNS/ANN) -- Vietnam’s goal of securing an investment-grade credit rating by 2030 could be achieved earlier than planned as the country already meets most key benchmarks, according to market analysts.
In a 2026 outlook report released this week, experts from investment management firm VinaCapital said the Government has ample financial resources in its own currency to cover costs such as land compensation and locally produced construction materials. However, projects involving imported technologies, including high-speed rail and power generation, will require foreign currency, making an investment-grade credit rating an increasingly pressing issue this year.
“While the Government aims for an investment-grade rating by 2030, we believe it can be achieved sooner since Vietnam already meets most quantitative criteria and only needs to address a limited set of qualitative issues,” said Michael Kokalary, chief economist of VinaCapital.
The assessment follows a recent move by Fitch Ratings, which last month upgraded Vietnam’s long-term senior secured debt ratings to BBB- from BB+. Fitch cited expectations of average recovery prospects for senior unsecured debt and additional recovery benefits from the secured portion of the debt instruments.
According to VinaCapital’s report, Vietnam’s GDP expanded by 8 percent in 2025 while the VN-Index surged 37 percent. The Government expects growth to accelerate to 10 percent in 2026 and VinaCapital also anticipates very strong performance this year, driven by a surge in infrastructure spending, resilient exports and a modest recovery in consumption.
“Vietnam’s 2025 GDP growth was significantly boosted by an 80 percent jump in exports of laptops and other high-tech items to the US and by a 42 percent increase in both Chinese and Indian tourist arrivals, which masked mediocre domestic consumer spending growth. This year, we expect a normalisation of both consumption and export growth. These two dynamics will largely offset each other, while the lagged impact of an infrastructure spending surge in 2025 will support Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2026,” the report states.
“We also acknowledge that 10 percent GDP growth represents an upside scenario, with the Government having a range of tools at its disposal that could support this outcome, particularly if additional stimulus measures are implemented.” Domestic consumption has remained weak over the past two years as households depleted savings during COVID and have since maintained an unusually high savings rate. While estimates vary, most analysts agree that elevated savings help explain the subdued pace of retail sales growth.

(Latest Update February 25, 2026)